Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 59.066035 65.952620 73.821663 83.597100 95.587415 110.054276 129.218864
2025-02-02 51.922963 61.320558 73.121830 89.516082 112.578541 145.448024 199.393935
2025-02-09 46.567672 56.911370 70.696396 91.340883 123.427450 175.716392 280.341092
2025-02-16 42.164873 52.756650 67.473395 90.762032 129.876392 201.243740 373.936136
2025-02-23 38.841241 49.509801 64.838103 90.231412 135.861930 228.403316 502.544820
2025-03-02 35.740803 46.169824 61.523294 87.843557 137.687950 248.008712 643.300932
2025-03-09 33.311421 43.534200 58.909577 86.089995 140.132503 270.459044 848.328321
2025-03-16 30.649864 40.315765 55.029171 81.499144 135.649198 273.265076 979.807117
2025-03-23 29.943877 39.971207 55.661344 85.070491 149.516872 336.873498 1855.922623
2025-03-30 28.481204 38.333691 53.992583 84.047669 152.680209 370.238257 2971.436232
2025-04-06 27.081879 36.693069 52.162594 82.438381 154.015013 399.007696 5008.301890
2025-04-13 25.423992 34.542807 49.298066 78.415960 148.293636 395.828922 6411.543917
2025-04-20 25.274248 34.857180 50.816657 83.782497 169.939596 547.108956 NaN
2025-04-27 25.135138 35.184119 52.411698 89.722684 196.815774 812.099001 NaN
2025-05-04 24.453052 34.549467 52.178977 91.554186 212.053687 1073.128293 NaN
2025-05-11 23.544085 33.466554 51.001175 90.973201 218.810487 1301.871595 NaN
2025-05-18 22.719541 32.476544 49.913303 90.440632 225.749078 1607.247734 NaN
2025-05-25 21.759705 31.199368 48.172285 88.044089 224.416896 1787.440492 NaN
2025-06-01 20.939515 30.124911 46.753121 86.284234 225.261965 2063.475592 NaN
2025-06-08 19.877749 28.582434 44.323841 81.677260 212.433925 1901.978833 NaN
2025-06-15 19.719120 28.619156 45.019113 85.261106 237.812754 3493.209787 NaN
2025-06-22 19.120847 27.844123 44.028410 84.234672 241.361365 4523.148403 NaN
2025-06-29 18.505381 27.012057 42.871235 82.619754 241.439447 5557.693973 NaN